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Policymakers in the U.S. and China are adopting pro-growth strategies to bolster their economies. The Federal Reserve is taking a proactive stance to ensure a soft landing amid solid economic data, while China aims to stabilize its real estate and stock markets and support consumer spending.
Raiffeisen Bank International AG has reduced its Russian loan and deposit volumes by approximately 25% in Q3 2024, following a directive from the European Central Bank (ECB). Loans to Russian customers now stand at €4.5 billion, while deposits have decreased to €11 billion. This decision comes after unsuccessful attempts to sell the unit amid sanctions and regulatory hurdles, with a Russian court recently freezing the unit"s shares, complicating the exit strategy.
The Ariège departmental council has established an 8 million euro reserve to navigate anticipated financial challenges due to a government revenue reduction for local authorities. Key decisions include postponing 5 million euros in investments, allocating 2.1 million euros for secondary schools, and dedicating 2.6 million euros for the reconstruction of the Ehpad Jules Rousse.
Raiffeisen Bank International AG has reduced its Russian loans and deposits by approximately 25% following pressure from the European Central Bank. Loans to Russian customers decreased by about 23% to under €4.5 billion, while customer deposits fell by 25% to around €11 billion.
Tunisia's 2025 budget reveals a projected deficit of 9.8 billion dinars, with revenues estimated at 50.028 billion dinars against expenditures of 59.828 billion dinars. Key revenue sources include tax revenues of 45.249 billion dinars, while state expenditure focuses on strategic economic and social development sectors. The budget also allows for Treasury loans of up to 330 million dinars and guarantees totaling 8 billion dinars to support public establishments.
UBS forecasts gold prices to reach $2850 by mid-2025, citing ongoing benefits from rate cuts, including a projected 100 basis points in 2024 and another 100 in 2025. Additionally, global rate cuts and potential political shifts, such as a Trump election win, may support gold's value.
EUR/JPY and USD/JPY continue to rally ahead of the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, with EUR/JPY targeting the ¥167.33-¥168.01 resistance zone after surpassing the previous range. Meanwhile, AUD/USD has dropped to its $0.6580-58 support zone, which is expected to hold this week.
IG
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is poised to distribute profits to the federal government and cantons, with UBS economists predicting a profit of 5 to 10 billion for the third quarter, adding to the 57 billion already earned this year. However, future distributions may be limited due to a provisioning rule and ongoing geopolitical uncertainties.
Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management, believes that fixed income investments will remain appealing as the Bank of Canada is anticipated to continue lowering interest rates over the next six months. This outlook suggests a favorable environment for bonds in the coming years.
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) is projected to report a net profit of CHF 5 to 10 billion for Q3, following a CHF 55 billion profit in the first half of the year. This could bring total earnings for the first nine months to between CHF 60 and 65 billion, allowing for potential payments to cantons and the Confederation by year-end.However, market volatility due to the U.S. presidential election and Middle East conflicts may impact fourth-quarter performance. In 2023, the SNB recorded a loss of CHF 3.2 billion, which, along with a negative reserve of CHF 39.5 billion, hindered contributions to public authorities.
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